11/28/08

Jessica Alba, Mediocre Starer

I beat her by a good 30 seconds.




And who doesn't close their eyes before a starting a staring contest? Foolish, I say.

11/24/08

Technical Difficulties

Not sure what is up, but www.wildfiring.com is giving a 404 error right now, so I switched back over to the blogspot address for the time begin. Will try to look in to it more tomorrrow, but for now use wildfiring.blogspot.com.

UNC-Chaminade Liveblog

1:25 - Alrighty, that was a whoopin'. Maybe I'll blog again tomorrow, and possibly even talk about basketball a little bit. Ciao.

1:20
- Jeez, Tanner has points for each major cast member of Full House. Even the extra Olsen twin and Kimmy Gibler are covered.

1:17
- Wooten stuffed Obama. What a punk. Damn, the kid from my sort-of high school (Jordan) is going to be the white wash killer this year. Bummer.

1:16 - Nice the Older sister from Full House just had a sick reverse lay-up. And now a 3! Give that girl a scholarship.

1:15 - I think I can sense the white wash coming ... wait a sec ... Do we even have white wash capability this year? Inquiring minds want to know. I personally think he should leave starters in and shoot for the ultra-rare 2^6 - 2^7 final score.

1:08 - ... Or maybe we just need to play Chaminade for the rest of the year. Why can we only shoot threes in games where it doesn't matter.

1:01 - Yikes, we need to get someone to salute Danny like every 10 minutes for the rest of the season. Another sick alley.

1:00 - Bilas and Raftery are great. Two of my favorites.

12:55 - Yow! The Ty to Green's alley oop was filthy. You Dean Dome goers are going to see that about 234 times this year.

12:50 - One more thing, and I'll shut up about Newby. It is kind of sad that he is remembered more for his mediocre life of crime than for his mediocre basketball skill. OK, that is all.

12:44 - I'm wondering if the Newby dunk wouldn't just fall prey to the Goonies syndrome. I recently watched the beloved Charles Kuralt, UNC commercial that everyone always wanted to bring back ... and it kind of sucked. It's very 80s --- or maybe 90s --- who knows these days. (I'm not going to post it here, but if you want to experience the pain yourself --- click). Maybe I should just let Newby live in my memory.

12:43 - UNC blitzing them now double up. 64-32. Oh, man the super rare power of 2 double up. A 128-64 final would be super-dorky math sweetness.

12:41 - He then proceeds to stay there --- him 2 feet off the ground. the ball stuck to the rim, his face frozen in terror --- for a good 3 seconds. It was a wonder of physics that he came in at the only possible angle at which, the force of the ball pressing in to the rim and the rim pushing back would balance exactly and allow him to hover above the court, with the stunned crowd looking on. It's was like witnessing the near-impossible occurence of that 1 in 10 gazillion possibility of all of the atoms lining up perfectly and someone walking through a door. After those 3 seconds he plummets to the floor and the entirity of his back, from his top of his semi-fro to the bottom his feet all slam in to the ground at exactly the same moment.

12:35 - At least I hope the video would be worth it. In my memory, Newby goes up for the dunk while the other 9 players stand on the other side of the court watching. No body any where near him. He has all the time in the world, jumps as high as he can, and absolutely slams the ball ... directly in to the rim.

12:30 - 5 minutes of halftime searching failed to find the Newby dunk (or lack thereof) on YouTube. If anyone can track that down ... well, no reward I could give would bring more joy than just watching the video. Trust me it is worth it.

12:25 - I'm not going to lie, Chaminade's commercial just made us look like chumps. I wonder how thier PhD stat program is ... I even have 4 years of eligibility left, I might be able to help out with the Jeremy hook.

12:20 - Hm, Danny's little solute is a little silly. It's Chaminade, not 1990 UNLV dude.

12:19 - I get the feeling that whenever I'm feeling ho-hum about our play (see 12:15), Roy is fucking furious. We're up by 20 now.

12:16 - Danny goes 1-4, with 2 pts and 3 rebounds on a single possession. F for effort Danny.

12:15 - Chaminade is 5-65 in the tournament, and we are up by 12 with 4 minutes left in the half ... shrug.

12:10 - I'm pretty sure my site is down (for reasons unknown), my IT approach is going to involve ignoring the problem for a few days to see if it goes away and then maybe calling at GoDaddy.

12:07 - I must say, as much as I dislike Duke basketball, they producesome damn fine announcers. Bilas is a class act, and I was frankly shocked how much I agreed with Jay Williams when he was announcing the UC Santa Barbara game.

12:05 - Not too much excitement thus far. With that dunk, Graves did prove that he is no Terrance Newby regardless of the similar build and slight resemblance

12:04 (Chile time) - Just finished doing the dishes and thought I would liveblog (or almost live blog - I am a few minutes behind) the rest of this epic battle.

11/16/08

Help ... please ...

Anyone?

11/15/08

UNC Athletics - Liveblog - 2nd Half

8:01 - White boys! One from my sort-of alma mater (Jordan). "Tyler looks like his mom just died." -Alexa Nicole Kleysteuber-Wildfire. OK, that's all from me. Going to watch the football in silence. Let me know if you think this is worth doing again.

8:00 - So, we didn't reach that 25 point win prediction, but still a nice enough game overall. If Zeller and Davis are really this good, and Tyler and Ginyard both come back healthy, we're going to be scary good.

7:56 -
Another big Zeller dunk. I just couldn't be more impressed with those 2.

7:53 -
Double double for Davis. Impressive.

7:52 -
Being in Chile makes US commercials both more appealing (since I can't have the stuff) and more annoying (since I can't have the stuff).

7:50 -
The downside of Slingbox: "I'm really glad we came to Chile so you could watch both football and basketball ... you can put that on your blog" --- Can anybody guess that speaker?

7:48 -
Looks like the team was looking past Penn as much as I was ... Hopefully, this doesn't get any more interesting ...

7:47 -
13 point game ... We're back to 2 years ago when we had a random white guy freaking lighting us up every other game ... 10 point game.

7:43 - I didn't even know I missed it until right now, but it had been way too long since I'd heard Roy say "youngster".

7:43 -
Alexa notes that Tyler appears to be aging Benjamin Button-style. I agree, it's improbably, but he does somehow look even younger than last year. Maybe he just looks funny in a suit.

7:41 -
Still a blowout so time for another prediction - Lawson will be drafted at the beginning of the second round, but will be the biggest steal of next year's draft.

7:40 -
Alexa went to see about getting her engagement ring re-sized. I got her a size 16 (metric) She wears a size 10. I suck.

7:38 -
Shudder. Kansas Highlights. The shocked silence as we watched that game in the Dean Dome was a truly bizarre, miserable experience. OK, enough of that. Up by 19. Up by 19.

7:35 - Alexa's back ... Hi Alexa.

7:30 - Well, not much to see from Drew. He looked ... fine. I like Bobby, and feel bad for his crap-luck, but I hope Drew plays more than him this year. That experience could really pay dividends next year.

7:25 -
Drew looks enough like QT on my decidedly non-HD slingbox to confuse feeble-minded people like me.

7:24 -
Wayne has forced at least 2 shots for no good reason.

7:21 -
Davis' free throw is flat. Could keep him on the bench in close games. 9pts, 10 reb now, though.

7:20
- Speaking of young gaurds, Drew just game back in. Haven't noticed him much, will try to watch him more closely this stretch ... Moving the ball quickly in half court ...

7:15
- Now that we're officially in blowout territory, and I've seen 20 minutes of the Freshmen, let's talk about next year ... Deon, Zeller and Davis put us in the top 25.
If Ellington or Ty stay then we're top 5. Without them, it will be an interesting year. We're going to be very good up front, and very questionable at guard ... With a bunch of Freshmen and Sophomores (and Graves??) getting tons of minutes.

7:12 - ... Followed immediately by a stupid foul. When is the last time we had 4 legitimately good big men? I could be wrong, but I don't think we've had a 4th C/PF as good as Zeller and Davis in my lifetime.

7:11 - Mmm mmm, nice Dunk from Zeller.

7:10 -
Anyone know of a website that streams Woody? I can't take a whole year of TV announcers.

7:06
- Why does Firefox's spell check work in my posts, but not in my titles? Because it wants people to be amused by my spelling of "atheletics".

UNC Athletics - Liveblog

7:00 - Not bad at all for a first half of the year without your best offensive and defensive player. UNC by 1 in Football. Going to be close again ...

6:55 - 8 pts, 7 boards for Davis in the first half. Any guesses for who gets more minutes between Davis, Zeller and Deon this year? I'd once Tyler get's back and takes his 30+ per game, Deon will average 20 minutes, Davis 18, Zeller 14, but I would't be at all surprised if Davis and Zeller are playing more than that by March.

6:53 - 16 point lead. We're dominating inside and playing better D. Guess that answers the Tyler/Run question at least for today.

6:52 - Danny looking very good. He's going to play in the NBA.

6:01 - Me offering football analysis is ridiculous. Going to start dinner ... Turkey Meatloaf, get pumped.

6:50
- The lag associated with slingbox means you have to anticipate Tivo actions about 5 seconds in advance .. takes some getting used to. (Life is good, if that is what I have to complain about.)

6:45 - Not looking that great as a team so far, but I can't single out any individual as having a bad game. Ty hasn't done much I guess. Team defense has been especially mediocre, but with a bunch of Freshmen taking minutes from Marcus and Tyler's (maybe our best 2 defenders by the end of last season) I guess that isn't surprising.

6:44 - Damn, Davis is long for 5'10''. Nice follow dunk and then a rebound where he was 18 inches above everyone else. I'm impressed. If those guys learn to play defense by March we are going to be *very* hard to beat.

6:40 - UNC: 2/8 from 3. Penn: 5/13 from 3. Prediction: Those percentages reverse the rest of the way and we win by 25. Penn is young and not that good, and the freshman and Deon are more than enough size to wear them down.

6:35
- Hmm, looks like Md scored again over in the football game, and they have the ball. Damn! Missed easy interception. Jesus. That was too easy. Nice, Sack! Now, I am an unabashed, unapologetic fair-weather football fan (Hey, I don't like football that much), but I must say, I am damn impressed with how fast Butch Davis has made us good, and just as importantly, fun to watch. I was frankly shocked today when I saw that we have a very good shot at the ACC championship game. Crazy.

6:33 - Still only a 3 point game. 25-22, and they've missed 2 straight wide open 3s. This is the part where Tyler draws a charge, 3 point play, Ginyard steal, dunk, missed 3, 3 point play. Ball game.

6:32 - "Heels get the ball back, get the ball back" Is this a new cheer or just some loud guy? Either way, Jon, I demand sustained booing any time those words are said.

6:28 - The one thing that we really need Tyler for is "the run". Tyler always scores, but it seems like always had half of the points in our 12-0, 15-2 runs last year. I'm not sure anyone else on the team is capable of that level of consistency and intensity.

6:27
- Glad to see the refs still know whats what. It's about 8-2 in fouls 9 minutes in.

6:25
- This is the first time I've seen the freshman. Davis and Zeller both seem solid. Makes me worry a little less about Tyler. I wish we'd stop jacking up the 3s though. 16-14 ...

6:20 - At any rate, it definitely feels weird to be watching us play. That is exacerbated by the fact that I am sitting in Chile, eating an empenada and watching the games on my laptop. Consider this my official Slingbox endorsement. Five years ago, Ben had to call my parents house and have them put the phone next to a radio to get access to UNC basketball. Now, I'm flipping between 2 games with full Tivo power and no problems. Amazing.

6:18 - Is it just me, or was this the shortest Basketball off-season ever? Maybe it's because I've had an unusually busy summer. Or maybe it's that I'm more isolated from all of the offseason news in Chile. Or Maybe it's that I had to pay attention to baseball until the final day, so my "offseason" between the end of fantasy baseball and the beginning of UNC Basketball was short. Actually, it probably was shorter than usual since we played in the Final four and this is a relatively early opener.

6:14 - I'm flipping back and forth between the UNC Football and Basketball games and since Alexa is out and I don't have anything better to do, I thought I would live blog for a while.

11/13/08

Kindle Study Guide

My Cousin, Lisa, works for a publishing company that is considering converting medical textbooks to kindle format. In the comments to my Kindle review, she asked me to fill out a little survey. So here ya go:

1. Really simple: Do you think you'd use a Kindle to study?
Yes, but it depends on the context. More on this in the next questions.

2. If you were a medical student (or law student, or any kind of student, for that matter), could you see yourself using a Kindle for Q&A practice or general review if you were preparing for a test or standardized (board) exam?
Yes! In fact, the search and bookmark functions could be the best reason to have a textbook in Kindle format. Honestly, the lack of high-resolution graphics, would make me very hesitant to buy only the kindle version of a text book, but the incredibly easy search, bookmark and dictionary features would makes it perfect for review and would make me very very likely to buy an electronic version in addition to an old fashioned text book. Additionally, I think I would be very happy if I could read a hard copy at home, and then just bringing my 1 lb Kindle to class instead of 2 or 3 massive text books.

3. Would the absence of tables, diagrams, pictures, photos, or other illustrations traditionally used in textbooks to exemplify key concepts bother you or discourage you in any way from purchasing a textbook in Kindle format?
Yep, it would. For law school, I don't think this would be a problem, but for almost any science text, it would probably be a deal breaker for me if I had to make an either/or decision.

4. What price differential would you expect between a Kindle version of a textbook and the traditional print or online delivery method?
Depends, but I'd expect major discounts if I have to pay $300 for the device. I'd probably be willing to pay somewhere less than half price for a stand alone Kindle text book (if it wasn't graphic heavy), but I'd be very inclined to pay say 20% more to get a Kindle version along with the hard copy. Pulling numbers out of nowhere, I'd say $50 for stand alone and $20 for add-ons, but I might be willing to go somewhat higher.

5. And finally, if a textbook, review book or interactive test prep solution were available to you in both Kindle and iPod/iTouch/iPhone formats, through which technology would you prefer to study?
Kindle. It's not even close - especially for something as dense as a text book. I considered just getting an iPod touch reader instead of a Kindle, and I am very very glad I didn't.

OK, Lis, there ya go. If any other Kindle owners out there have thoughts for Lisa, post em in comments or send me a note and I'll pass it along.

11/12/08

Mad Men (Season 1) - 7.5


It took me two tries to get in to Mad Men. The first time, I only watched the first episode, thought it was boring and dismissed the show. Then it won 73 Emmys and starting appearing on 'Best Show Ever' list's and pretty much everyone I know who watches TV seriously (HA!) said it was great, so I figured I'd give it another shot ...

... and what do ya know, shocker of shockers, Mad Men is pretty damn good after all. I still have complaints and stick by my first impression to some extent (see below), but all told, it's a wonderfully written show that looks great and is universally well acted. Don Draper, especially, is a truly amazing character, and his story, if nothing else will keep me watching. I'm obviously massively late to this party so I'm not going to belabor the points that have been made in hundreds of other places, but suffice to say, Mad Men more-or-less deserves the acclaim it has gotten. It's far more worthy than lots of recent Emmy winners and more importantly, it's an undeniably good show.

All that said, I don't think Mad Men is quite a great show. Frankly, I think my first impression stands to some extent: plot lines almost always develop too slowly and, at times, the show borders on boring. Mad Men shares both a creator and a lot of it's tone with the Sopranos, which is mostly blessing, but a little bit of a curse as well. Lord knows Sopranos had it's lulls, but it always had hard-core gangsta action to liven things up and get the testosterone flowing and rescue it from lulls. Mad Men does not have that luxury, when the show is melancholy (and it often is) it is just an outright downer. Sure, it's a pretty, well-acted, starkly realistic and believable downer, but it's a downer none-the-less.

I'm a few episodes in to the second season now, and I think I am going to take a break, but I'll be back with a review of Season 2 in a month or two.

11/11/08

Coming Soon

Nothing makes me want to watch good movies more than watching a bad (well, mediocre) one. Here are the five movies that I am looking forward to the most:

1) Slumdog Millionaire


A Danny Boyle movie that probably won't suck! In fact, if the movie lives up to the preview and the buzz it is going to be spec-freaking-tacular.



2) The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

David Fincher and Brad Pitt reunite and bring Cate Blanchett along. The preview is frankly a little boring, but the look and feel of the movie is absolutely incredible.



3) Up

The new Pixar. Once again the trailer is slightly underwhelming (Pixar trailers always are for me), but if they can come anywhere close to Ratatouille and Wall-E then this will be awesome.



4) Doubt


Adaptation of a Pulitzer Prize winning play ... It could go either way, but the cast (Meryl Streep, Phillip Seymore Hoffman, Amy Adams) is undeniable.



5) The Hobbit

No trailer for this one just yet, but Guillermo Del Toro and Tolkien ... wow.

11/10/08

Quantum of Solace - 4.5


It's one step forward, two steps back with the new Bond film. I liked Daniel Craig in the his first turn as Bond in Casino Royal. That movie also featured one of my favorite actions scenes ever, but it rambled on for at least 30 minutes too long and had a plot that made about as much sense as a Simpson's Halloween special viewed underwater. All in all, I was lukewarm after my first viewing, but I have happily re-watched parts of it over the last few year, and being a glass half-full kind of guy I was excited for the new one.

Well, Quantum of Solace did lots of things right. For one, the plot was easily understood. Sure, it was a sightly pedestrian geo-political conflict straight out of the headlines (from today or from 50 years ago), but I like being able to follow the plot, so it was an improvement. I also like that they changed the standard Bond-as-a-womanizer-douchebag dynamic between Bond and his co-star. Daniel Craig was good again as Bond. He's a little bit quieter and a little bit meaner than the last few incarnations, but in my humble opinion, it works. In general, the movie was well written, well acted and looked great, better than Casino Royal in each aspect.

So, they did everything right .... except for the one and only thing that matters in a Bond movie: the action scenes. The action was so forgettable that Alexa and I had to pull out hair just compile a basic list the action scenes in the movie (car chase, foot chase, etc ...) as we were walking home. The actions scenes were ho-hum at best and boring at worst. They were certainly no where close to the opening construction site chase in Casino Royale or any of the highlights from the last two Bourne movies. Basically, there was absolutely nothing you haven't seen done and done better in another movie. It's a shame, really, since all of the tools were there for this to be a great action movie --- everything except for the great action.

11/9/08

A Year of (Very) Moderate Reading

My main New Years resolution this year was to read more - specifically, 2 books per month. Like almost all of my past resolutions (the marathon being the notable exception), I am failing, but unlike many of my past resolutions, I am not failing miserably. Here's what I've read this year so far:
  1. The Brief Wondrous life of Oscar Wao, by Junot Diaz
  2. A Devil in the White City, by Erik Larson
  3. When You are engulfed in Flames, by David Sedaris
  4. Kitchen Confidental, by Anthony Bourdain
  5. Nine Stories, by JD Salinger
  6. The Namesake, by Jhumpa Lahiri
  7. A War of Gifts, by Orson Scott Card
  8. Ender's Game, by Orson Scott Card (re-read)
  9. Animal, Vegetable, Miracle, by Barbara Kingsolver
  10. The Road, by Cormac McCarthy
  11. The Pillars of the Earth, by Ken Follett
So, I am a just about half way, and I think with a little conserted effort, this resolution can be salvaged. I haven't read Tom Sawyer and Huck Finn since I was a kid, and they're sitting on my Kindle now, so those 2 are next on the list ... If anyone has other book suggestions, send them my way in comments.

11/8/08

Amazon Kindle Review


When I was in the states, my parents got me a Kindle as an early birthday present. I've read a few thousand pages on it so far, so I thought I'd write up my first ever device review. You can go to Amazon to get the full spiel, but in short, the Kindle is an electronic book reader - the picture above should give you a good general idea of the layout and whatnot. We're going to bullet points, and in typical Jeremy fashion, I am going to do cons first.

Cons
  • The button layout isn't great, in fact, it's the worst thing about the device. Those big buttons on the side turn the pages, and they are pretty easy to hit accidentally. It makes the device a little hard to hold (though I've gotten used to it), and inadvertent page turns are common (but easily reversible). It could also be easier to turn on and off.
  • The Kindle generally keeps track of where you are in your books, but I somehow managed to lose my place 2 or 3 times while reading the 1000 page "Pillars of the Earth". That's no more than I would've lost my place while reading a real book, but it is still annoying.
  • It's not backlit, so you need a light source to read.
  • All new books have DRM, and can't be shared or transferred (or easily stolen via bittorrent), which is a mild pain, but not unsurprising, or neccisarily unfair.
  • It's pricey, still over $300 after the deal associated with Oprah's endorsement.
Pros
  • Pretty much everything else.
  • Easy to read. The screen is great. It really is like reading a book. Much easier to read than an LCD screen. No problems reading in bright sunlight. I read for at least 3 or 4 hours straight on the plane back to Chile and didn't have any problems.
  • Battery life is very good (although, the screen saver eats battery just like reading, which is silly). I've recharged twice in the 2 weeks I've had it.
  • The engineering really is Apple-like (read: very impressive). It is a very solid device, and I don't feel inclined to be especially gentle with it. I don't worry about it in bags and I toss it on the couch or bed without a second thought. Basically, I treat it like a book (or an iPod).
  • The book selection in the Kindle store is pretty good, and books are at least somewhat cheaper than the physical versions. There is also a fair amount of free material out there, which isn't too tough to find and tap in to. This was the selling-point for me, since English-language books in Chile are both hard to find and at least twice as expensive as in the states.
  • The cell-phone-like internet connection (called Whispernet) allows instant delivery of new material. Buying books is easy, but more importantly, sampling books is very easy and extremely cool. The first chapter of every book in the store is available to sample for free. There is also rudimentary internet access, although I never could manage to check my gmail with it in the airport. Still the service is free for the life of the device and is a nice perk. The constant internet connection at no extra charge could help to justify the price for some. Unfortunately, this is only available in the US, so it doesn't help me much. Even more unfortunately, so far as I can tell, there isn't a way to sample books without whispernet. At least you can download things you buy to the computer and then tranfer to the Kindle via USB.
  • The dictionary feature is great. You can click on any line you are reading and definitions pop up immediately. A thesaurus would be a nice addition.
  • It's great for truly traveling. It's lighter and thinner than a paperback holds ton's of material. If you own a kindle you will never have to pack 6 books for your week at the beach again.
Summary
So, if you managed to read through all of that, I hope it's clear that the pros outweigh the cons by a considerable margin. It's a great device, and I'm really happy I own one. With that said, I'd recommend that most people wait for the next version before buying. Although there aren't very many negatives, the problems that do exist are pretty clear design flaws that will almost definitely be remedied in the next generation. So, unless you have a pressing reason to get one (e.g. - $40 Grisham novels in Chile), I'd wait. I'd rate the current version a very respectable B+, but the update has a chance to be an A.

Final score: 8/10

11/7/08

Fantasy Presidential Politics - And the winner is ...

[I realize this is of no major import to anyone, but for the sake of completeness, here is the final resolution of the epic Fantasy Presidential Politics]

So, it looks like no states flipped since the last update, and we ended up with a 3 way tie between Ben, Anisa and Sharita, so we go to tie-breakers to determine the winner. Of course, just to make my like complicated, Ben, Anisa and Sharita had nearly identical guesses. They predicted Obama to have 52, 52.5 and 53% of the popular vote, respectively. For number of Democratic Senators, Ben guessed 59 and Sharita and Anisa both guessed 60.

Unfortunately, I had everyone complete 2 tie-breakers and then didn't specify which one would trump the other. It's a little unfair to do that retroactively, but as I noted above, no one cares much, so I'm going to say the popular vote prediction trumps the senator prediction since our bylaws doesn't mention the senator thing (I just made that up).

So, according to this Obama won just over 53% of the popular vote and, as such, Sharita's guess of 53% wins!! Anisa and Ben can feel free to complain to management if they are so inclined, but they should keep in mind the fact that management's picks sucked, so he isn't likely to be too sympathetic.

Congrats, Sharita. Nice picks!

11/5/08

Political Purge

I've spent way too much time reading about politics for the last year and a half, so it is time to become a more well rounded person with a post-election blog purge on Google Reader. I'm going to keep reading Andrew Sullivan and 538, but that is it. Everything else (Ambinder, Yglesias, Borowitz Report, Hertzberg, Marginal Revolution, The Stump, TPM, Slate - Trailhead, Red State Update, Krugman) is getting the boot. All of those are good blogs and had survived previous attempts to consolidate, but I just don't have time for all of them, and I trust that anything really good from those guys will get shared by Compton or Denny.

The Rock

So, as most of you have heard, Alexa and I got engaged this weekend. She tells the story much better than I do, so I'll let her write something up later, but here is a much requested picture of the rock (God, that was horrible, even by my standards). Here is the real picture of the soon-to-be resized ring:


It's even sustainable and stuff. I got it from Brilliant Earth. Everyone there was very nice, so I would definitely recommend them if you're ever in the market.

Fantasy Presidential Politics - Wednesday Update

So, it is looking increasingly likely that this is going to turn in to the Bush/Gore of electoral politics prediction. Right now Ben, Anisa, Sharita, Ryan and Joe all have a shot at the title! Read on if you want the grisly details, or just sit tight and I'll post again when things are settled (whenever that may be).

So far as I can tell, here is what we don't know yet:
  1. Missouri and NC have not been called, but McCain has a 6000 vote (0.2%) lead in Missouri and Obama has a 12,000 vote (also 0.2%) lead in NC. 100% of precincts are reporting, but provisional ballots are pending. There probably won't be recounts here since the results are largely academic for the actual election and neither, none of the contenders here have enough pull to make it happen. Still, there may be some political wrangling in te coming weeks (months?) over the final outcomes.
  2. There is some weirdness in Georgia, where there are some (maybe a lot of) votes pending.
  3. Three senate races are up in the air, Minnesota, Alaska and maybe Georgia. Democrats could end up anywhere between 57 and 60 seats depending on how those shake out.
  4. Obama won about 52% of the vote, but it will probably be a while before we know what the decimal place on that 52% looks like. Unfortunately, that decimal place may very well matter.
So, the status quo has Missouri and Georgia going to McCain and NC going to Obama. Pulling numbers out of thin air, I'd say there is a 15% chance for NC and Missouri will flip and maybe a 2% chance for Georgia. With that in mind here are the possible outcomes (with % liklihood in parenthesis):
  1. Status quo maintained (70.8% likely)- Here, we have a 3-way tie between Ben, Sharita and Anisa, all of whom missed one toss-up state. The tiebreakers might favor Ben (59 Senate, 52% popular vote - 40% chance of winning), but Anisa (60, 52.5%, 35% chance) and Sharita (60, 53%, 25% chance) have numbers that are quite similar. This is Florida 2000 and we probably won't know for sure who wins for a month or more.
  2. Missouri flips to Obama (12.5%)- Anisa stays perfect, wins outright and the tiebreakers are blissfully irrelevant. Ben is second.
  3. NC flips to McCain (12.5%) - Joe wins (!!!). Anisa, Ben and Sharita stay tied for 2nd.
  4. Missouri and NC both flip (2.2%)- Anisa wins. Denny moves up to second.
  5. Georgia flips (1.4%) - Ryan storms back for the win. Ben second.
  6. Georgia and Missouri flip (0.3%) - Ryan wins. Anisa second (and I crack the top 10!).
  7. Georgia and NC flip (0.3%) - Joe wins. Ryan second (I'm back down to 15th).
  8. All 3 flip (<0.01%)- Ryan wins. Anisa second.
Those numbers would lead to the following chances of victory:
  1. Anisa - 40%
  2. Ben - 29%
  3. Sharita - 22%
  4. Joe - 13%
  5. Ryan - 2%
So, that's all for now, I'll update the probabilities more as the news warrants. Thanks for playing everyone! I had fun messing with this, and I hope it was an interesting addition to your election routine.

Standings - Insomnia Edition



For expanded standings click here.

2:00 am update: Six people still perfect with Missouri, NC, Indiana and Montana still up in the air.
2:35 am update: I'm tentatively moving NC and Indiana to the Obama column. If those hold, Anisa is the only person who is still perfect, and Ben is the only person with a chance to catch her.
3:00 am update: Ben and Anisa both have McCain in Montana so it comes down to Missouri for the win. If Obama wins, Anisa is alone at the top. If McCain wins, then it goes to the tiebreakers, which could go either way. They could also split the tie-breakers, in which case, they have to play Jenga for the win. I'm off to bed (again). Final update in the morning.

11/4/08

Liveblogging The Election

9:55 - Ok, for all intents and purposes, this thing is over, and I'm going to shut up unless something changes. I'll have an wrap-up for the prediction contest later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Right now, I am both relieved and overjoyed. And most definitely massively proud to be part of this. A black man, with the middle name Hussein is about to become president of the USA. He beat a war hero and the most powerful machine in democratic politics to get there. He was written off a year ago, and completely unknown 5 years ago. He ran an immaculate campaign. Very nearly flawless. If you take a step back, his path to this point is completely unthinkable. And he did it all by being himself. Tough. Funny. Honest. Smart. Compassionate.
Frankly, revolutionary. Yes we can, folks. Yes we can.

9:37 -
Amazing. Incredible. Speechless. It's actually going to happen. Thank God.
9:34 -
NPR calls Ohio for Obama. New Mexico now too. Ball game. Amazing.
9:32 -
OOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHIIIIIIIIIOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
9:16 -
Down to half of the predictions perfect through 29 states. I'm bringing up the rear with 3 misses. The perfect predictions will diminish quickly as the toss-ups get called. The probability of getting 6 coin flips correct is 1 in 64, so I'd say it's pretty unlikely (maybe a 10% chance) we see a perfect set of predictions when all is said in done.
9:09 -
9:00 poll closings go as expected. North Dakota called immediately, which I thought might be close. By the way, I am calling things quickly here, since I have no reason to be conservative, but if things change, I'll be happy to fix them.
8:52 -
10 of 18 people still have perfect predictions ... I am definitely not one of them. The polling so far looks deadly accurate. Every place that was supposed to be close is close.
8:23 -
Alexa's classmate, Tom Jensen gets a shoutout on NPR.
8:18 -
Dole is out!! So far so good kids. So far so good. Obama looks good in NC so far, but my very liberal home towns account for a large percentage of the vote. Still, Obama is polling at about 76% in Durham as compared to the upper 60s for Kerry with 90% of the county in.
8:11 -
Lucious, Ryan and I miss the first state (West Virginia) in the prediction contest. Everyone else is 15 for 15.
8:02 -
Penn called immediately!!! Absolutely huge.
7:56 -
Thumbs twiddling. Listing to Frank Stasio on NPR.
7:36 -
No news is ... good news? Bad news? Who knows really. Silver sees good signs in Indiana. Sullivan had reports of massive turn out all day long.
7:22 - My set-up here:
On TV - CNN Espanol (muted).
On Radio - NPR.
On internet - NY Times and CNN maps. Updates for the Election prediction contest and google reader checks.
7:20
- I've definitely missed people since moving here, but this is the first time I've really really missed America and wanted to in the States since I left.
7:19 EST (9:19 Chilean)
- Going to do some periodic liveblogging. No excitement so far ... taking a while in Virginia and Florida, but that is to be expected.

Fantasy Presidential Politics - Live Standings



For expanded standings click here.

OK, picks are locked and this post will update as the results come in tonight. Good luck everyone.

Yes We Can



Change.

11/3/08

Fantasy Presidential Politics - Stats

A few stats.

Predicted Election Outcomes (N=15) (Subtitle: we're liberal):

Fantasy Presidential Politics - Standings



For expanded standings click here.

We've got 15 people now, but feel free to join tonight if you are interested.

Fantasy Presidential Politics - Update

-We've got 13 people right now, but the more the merrier, so if you haven't already, go here and ... well, you can figure out the rest.
- I'm going to extend the deadline for entries until whenever I wake up tomorrow.
- The "leanings" are close enough for me, so I'm not going to change them.
- I *hope* to post a standings page here tonight and update it (more or less) live as results come in during the election tomorrow. We're currently planning to stay in and watch returns, but if that changes, I'll let you know.

That's all from election world, but check back for an update of a different sort in the next 24 hours or so.